Closed-Loop Solver
The CVC theory has one free parameter: ν, the running vacuum coefficient. This loop finds the ν that minimises the distance between theory and data — and reports whether the theory converges, needs revision, or is falsified.
Theory Engine
Given ν, computes w₀, wₐ, H(z), Ω_Λ(z)
lib/physics/theory.ts
Data Engine
Immutable observational constraints (DESI, Planck, SH0ES)
lib/physics/data.ts
Likelihood Engine
Computes χ², Mahalanobis σ, convergence status
lib/physics/likelihood.ts
Optimizer
Gradient descent + analytic closed-form best-fit ν
lib/physics/optimizer.ts
Loop Controller
State machine: RUNNING → CONVERGED / FALSIFIED
components/solver/SolverLoop.tsx
Revision Trigger
When χ² > threshold at best ν, demands new theory input
→ agents / human
Loop invariant
while (!converged && !falsified) {
predictions = theoryEngine.compute(ν)
residuals = likelihood.compare(predictions, observations)
status = likelihood.check(residuals)
if (status === 'converged' || status === 'falsified') break
ν = optimizer.step(ν, residuals)
iteration++
}
// If needs_revision: → agent team proposes new mechanismDESI 2024 DR1
w₀ = -0.727 ± 0.067
wₐ = -1.05 ± 0.27
ρ = -0.9
DESI Collaboration 2024 (arXiv:2404.03002)
Planck 2018
H₀ = 67.4 ± 0.5
Ωm = 0.315 ± 0.007
ΩΛ = 0.685
Planck Collaboration 2020 (arXiv:1807.06209)
Analytic Best-Fit
ν* = 0.503 ± 0.097
w₀* = -0.7686
wₐ* = -0.6941
χ² = 3.417(1.85σ)
χ²(ν) as a function of the running vacuum coefficient ν, evaluated against DESI DR1 with the full (w₀, wₐ) anti-correlation. The solver navigates this landscape in real time — the minimum at ν* is the theory's best prediction.
χ²(ν) against DESI DR1 (w₀, wₐ) with ρ=−0.90 anti-correlation. Green: χ²≤4 (converged). Amber: 4–25 (needs revision). Red: >25 (falsified). Best-fit ν* = 0.503 ± 0.097 (1σ, DESI DR1). χ²_min = 3.42.
How far each model sits from the DESI DR1 best-fit, in units of the correlated (w₀, wₐ) likelihood. A lower χ² means the model is more consistent with the data.
ΛCDM (w₀=−1, wₐ=0)
16.9
χ² (4.1σ from DESI)
Fixed point — no free parameter to optimise. The cosmological constant is ruled out by DESI at 4.1σ.
CVC-1.0 (ν = 0.503)
3.42
χ² (1.85σ from DESI)
One free parameter (ν). Best-fit lies inside the DESI 2σ ellipse. Theory converges.
Improvement
Δχ² = 13.4
CVC vs ΛCDM
CVC gains 13.4 χ² units with one additional parameter. Under AIC, Δχ²−2 = 11.4 favours CVC.
ν (current)
0.0000
running coefficient
χ² (DESI)
16.861
4.11σ from DESI
w₀ predicted
-1.0000
Δ = 0.2730 from DESI
wₐ predicted
0.0000
Δ = 1.0500 from DESI
χ² convergence
w₀–wₐ trajectory
Loop architecture
Each component is isolated — zero coupling between engines. The loop controller holds all state; engines are pure functions. Swap any engine without touching the others.
If the loop converges: ν is constrained, the theory makes a specific prediction for DESI DR2, and the next iteration is waiting for data. The loop pauses until DESI_DR2.w0 and DESI_DR2.wa become available.
If the loop needs revision: the agent team is triggered. The Geometer, QFT Agent, Phenomenologist, and Unifier each receive the residuals and propose mechanism amendments. Their outputs become new terms in the Theory Engine, and the loop restarts.
If the loop falsifies the theory: the CVC constraint line does not pass through the observational ellipse. The data has ruled out this specific mechanism. The loop returns to the deepest level — the wrong-assumption identification step — and a new physical principle is needed.
Loop version: CVC-1.0 · Data vintage: DESI DR1 (2024) · Next data: DESI DR2 (~2026)
Prediction Lock — Filed April 21, 2026
The following prediction was recorded before DESI DR2 data is available. It cannot be adjusted retroactively. DESI DR2 (expected 2025–2026) will determine whether the CVC constraint is satisfied or violated.
CVC falsification criterion
wₐ / (1 + w₀) ≈ −3
to within 1σ of DR2 measurement
Theory version tested
CVC-1.0
ρ_Λ(H) = ρ_Λ₀ + 3νM_P²(H²−H₀²)/8π
Predicted w₀ range
−0.73 to −0.97
on the CVC ray, depending on ν
Predicted wₐ range
−0.09 to −0.82
wₐ = −3(1+w₀) constraint
Verdict conditions
Data vintage: DESI DR1 (arXiv:2404.03002) · Prediction locked: 2026-04-21 · Expected resolution: DESI DR2 (~2026)